Forecasting Analysis of Potential Financial Distress PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk Using Arima Box Jenkins Method

Abstract

Introduction: PT Bank Aladin Syariah earned negative profits in and from 2019 to 2022 did not distribute dividends. Both of these conditions are signs that the company is experiencing financial distress. The purpose of this study is to analyze the potential for financial distress and predict it using the ARIMA Box Jenkins method. Research Methods: This study uses a quantitative method with the ARIMA Box Jenkins data processing technique. The sample used is time series data of z-score values ”‹”‹from 2019 to April 2024. The hypothesis in this study is that the ARIMA method has been proven accurate in predicting the potential for financial distress of PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk from May 2024 to December 2024. Results: The results showed that PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk in the next eight months are in financial distress. Conclusion: These results indicate that Aladin Syariah Bank must pay close attention to its financial condition so that it does not actually experience financial distress. Investors also need to further consider the decision to invest in Bank Aladin Syariah given its poor financial distress predictions.