Geopolitics of Power Shifts

Analyzing Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's Victory Over Assad and the Humanitarian Crisis in Syria

Abstract

This study examines the factors contributing to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) military success against the Bashar al-Assad regime and analyzes the subsequent humanitarian governance challenges faced by HTS-led interim authorities in Syria. Employing a qualitative methodology grounded in historical and geopolitical analysis, the research utilizes library-based data to assess: (1) HTS’s effective guerrilla warfare strategies, (2) the impact of external actor involvement (particularly Turkey’s support for HTS versus diminished Russian or Iranian backing for Assad), and (3) the socioeconomic consequences of prolonged conflict. Findings reveal that HTS’s ascendancy stems from tactical military proficiency combined with the Assad regime’s weakening under Western sanctions and reduced support from traditional allies (Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis). However, the group’s political consolidation has exacerbated Syria’s preexisting humanitarian crisis, with interim governance structures proving inadequate to address postwar displacement, infrastructure collapse, and international isolation. The study concludes by emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated international engagement to: (a) mitigate large-scale human suffering, and (b) develop conflict-sensitive governance frameworks that account for Syria’s complex geopolitical realities. These insights contribute to broader discussions on non-state actor transitions to governance and humanitarian management in contested states.

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